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Oct 26, 2008
Where is the bottom ? Here is the bottom for SENSEX...
26th October Here is the bottom ... 8550 ,
For the next week - buy with weekly stop loss of 8165 Target 10,895
Click to enlarge the picture.
Oct 19, 2008
Commodity Levels for 20-10-08 Week
December gold closed lower on Friday as it extends Thursday's breakout below the lower boundary of this fall's trading range crossing at 822.50. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, September's low crossing at 739.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 865.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 851.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 865.90. First support is today's low crossing at 772.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 739.80.
December silver closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 9.787. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level crossing at 7.811 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.763 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.791. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.763. First support is today's low crossing at 9.090. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 7.811.
December copper closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 201.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 263.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 230.85. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 252.95. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 204.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 201.33.
December silver closed lower on Friday and below the 75% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 9.787. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level crossing at 7.811 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.763 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.791. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.763. First support is today's low crossing at 9.090. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 7.811.
December copper closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 201.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 263.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 230.85. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 252.95. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 204.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 201.33.
Oct 13, 2008
FCCB redemptions put India Inc in a Catch 22 situation
Indian companies that raised large sums of foreign funds to finance growth and acquisition plans during the bull run in the stock markets are in a Catch 22 situation. The conversion price of their foreign currency convertible bonds is several times higher than their current market prices.
This leaves them with two options. One is to reset the price at current market price, a move that could dilute promoter holdings (since it would entail issuing more equity shares). The other is to redeem the bonds, which could increase debt obligations that are already substantial in some cases.
The maturity of many of the FCCBs is expected to start in October 2009 and peak in 2010-11. Most analysts say the market is unlikely to recover so significantly over the next two years that market prices will match the conversion prices.
In some cases, the outstanding amount on account of FCCBs is higher than or around the current market capitalisation of the companies concerned (see table). For instance, Hyderabad-based Subex Auzure raised $180 million (Rs 846 crore) in 2007 to finance the acquisition of Azure. The company’s market capitalisation as of September 30 was Rs 298 crore.
Should the management decide to re-set the conversion price and link it to the current market price, the company’s equity would be diluted. If it decides to repay these bonds, the redemption amount with interest would be around Rs 1,150 crore. The company has already raised debt of around Rs 1,050 crore.
The $110 million FCCB raised by pharmaceutical major Wockhardt is slated for conversion in October 2009 at Rs 629.80 against a current price of around Rs 155. If the company chooses to redeem the bonds, it will have to pay $140 million or Rs 658 crore. The company already has a debt obligation of around Rs 3,000 crore.
Firstsource, which is being put on the block by its promoters ICICI Bank, had mopped up $275 million through FCCBs, for which the conversion rate is Rs 128.60 against its current share price of around Rs 28.
The outstanding amount at the time of conversion is Rs 1,292 crore against a current market capitalisation is Rs 1,222 crore. If these bonds are redeemed, the company will have to repay around Rs 1,800 crore. With debt of Rs 1,300 crore, the company will face an uphill task redeeming the bonds.
Similarly, the conversion price for companies such as Aurobindo Pharma and Ranbaxy are Rs 732 and Rs 908 against the current price of Rs 277 and Rs 255 respectively and both have significant debt obligations.
This leaves them with two options. One is to reset the price at current market price, a move that could dilute promoter holdings (since it would entail issuing more equity shares). The other is to redeem the bonds, which could increase debt obligations that are already substantial in some cases.
The maturity of many of the FCCBs is expected to start in October 2009 and peak in 2010-11. Most analysts say the market is unlikely to recover so significantly over the next two years that market prices will match the conversion prices.
In some cases, the outstanding amount on account of FCCBs is higher than or around the current market capitalisation of the companies concerned (see table). For instance, Hyderabad-based Subex Auzure raised $180 million (Rs 846 crore) in 2007 to finance the acquisition of Azure. The company’s market capitalisation as of September 30 was Rs 298 crore.
Should the management decide to re-set the conversion price and link it to the current market price, the company’s equity would be diluted. If it decides to repay these bonds, the redemption amount with interest would be around Rs 1,150 crore. The company has already raised debt of around Rs 1,050 crore.
The $110 million FCCB raised by pharmaceutical major Wockhardt is slated for conversion in October 2009 at Rs 629.80 against a current price of around Rs 155. If the company chooses to redeem the bonds, it will have to pay $140 million or Rs 658 crore. The company already has a debt obligation of around Rs 3,000 crore.
Firstsource, which is being put on the block by its promoters ICICI Bank, had mopped up $275 million through FCCBs, for which the conversion rate is Rs 128.60 against its current share price of around Rs 28.
The outstanding amount at the time of conversion is Rs 1,292 crore against a current market capitalisation is Rs 1,222 crore. If these bonds are redeemed, the company will have to repay around Rs 1,800 crore. With debt of Rs 1,300 crore, the company will face an uphill task redeeming the bonds.
Similarly, the conversion price for companies such as Aurobindo Pharma and Ranbaxy are Rs 732 and Rs 908 against the current price of Rs 277 and Rs 255 respectively and both have significant debt obligations.
Click here to view the orignal msg from Business Standard
http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=336251
Oct 10, 2008
Commodity Levels for 10-10-08
December gold was higher overnight and spiked above resistance marked by September's high crossing at 878.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 970.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 872.30 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 937.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 970.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 880.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 872.30.
December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.198. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.197 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, September's low crossing at 10.310 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.198. Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12.335. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 10.840. Second support is September's low crossing at 10.310.
December copper was sharply lower overnight and posted a new contract low as it extended the previous low of 220.00. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 201.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 258.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.63. First support is the overnight low crossing at 216.00. Second support is monthly support crossing at 201.33.
December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.198. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.197 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, September's low crossing at 10.310 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.198. Second resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12.335. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 10.840. Second support is September's low crossing at 10.310.
December copper was sharply lower overnight and posted a new contract low as it extended the previous low of 220.00. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 201.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 258.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.63. First support is the overnight low crossing at 216.00. Second support is monthly support crossing at 201.33.
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